Trump is an amoral sociopath. He has no empathy for what others are going through. He only cares about how things affect him. He is focused on delivering on his promises to MAGA in order to not lose control in the mid-term elections. This is not a sign of loyalty; it is purely transactional. He will jettison any position if the exact opposite improves his political standing. He has also demonstrated a willingness to blatantly lie, knowing that enough of his faithful will ignore anything contrary to what he says. Musk suffers from the same affliction. Studies have shown that the percentage of sociopaths in corporate executive suites is higher than in the general population. Corporate greed culture rewards those who will do anything and shaft anybody to increase profits. Sociopaths are particularly suited to this role.
All the activity in the opening weeks of Trump’s administration is not a group of final acts. It is also not just about retribution. It is the process of preparing the battlefield. Trump is clearing away those folks who would hold his administration accountable (especially the IG’s). That is what scares me, because it indicates that bigger things lie ahead.
USAID was an easy target (low hanging fruit). Its US supporters are those who believe that when you have lots of resources you have an obligation to share them with those who do not. That is not a major concern of the MAGA crowd. You can make a rational argument that it really should be under the State Department, to tie its efforts to US Policy. The Trump administration is using it as a test case to see how far they can push before Congress finally takes action. If allowed, the Trumpists will take ever increasing levels of authority away from the Senate and House. We’ve not yet seen a limit to how much authority the Republican Senators and Congressmen are willing to cede in order to avoid the ire of MAGA. Perhaps the frog is already boiled. If the dissolution of USAID goes unchallenged, then other agencies will certainly fall (CFPB, EPA, FTC). Trump will target everything that might slow his efforts.
The Trump administration knows that many of its actions, like firing the IGs, will not stand-up in court. They are blatantly against federal laws and regulations. However, the legal process to rectify these actions is slow. Sure, the people who were illegally fired will be re-instated with back pay, but that will take months, and even years. The Trumpists will appeal every court decision, to drag it out further. The positions that these people held will have been filled by MAGA supporters, so they will be reinstated into positions at the same approximate level, but not with the same authority. Every organization has senior positions with empty portfolios where they put people they don’t want but can’t fire. The reinstated officials will have a paycheck, but no job. The dismantled organizations will suffer a similar fate. The experienced talent in these organizations will find other jobs while the courts battle. Once the organization is re-established, it will be in disarray, with the experienced people gone, and new folks filling the positions. It takes years for these essentially new agencies to become effective again. In the end, with all the court costs and back pay, no money is actually saved, but the Trumpists have effectively removed the organization from the playing board, probably for at least the entirety of Trump’s term.
Why do the monied tech titans support Trump? It’s not because Trump is such a big supporter of tech. It is worth noting that both Bezos and Zuckerberg were facing government Anti-trust cases. Musk was looking at an FDC case regarding his acquisition of Twitter. Guess what now goes away under a Trump administration?
Federal workers. Trump does not understand that which he calls the “Deep State”. There is no vast conspiracy of zealous liberal federal workers striving behind the scenes to thwart Trump’s efforts. If there was, I would have been part of it during the first Trump administration. But, as I’ve stated elsewhere, vast conspiracies are incredibly difficult to sustain, because someone either changes their mind, or was erroneously “recruited”, and spills the beans. We just aren’t that good at keeping secrets. Snowden and Manning are great examples, both with the fact that released massive troves of “Secret” information and that they were caught. The Deep State isn’t an organization, it’s an attitude. Most Federal Workers do what they do because they believe in what they are doing. We take an oath to support and defend the constitution. We sign on knowing that there are rules and regulations that regulate our work, and we willingly uphold them. Those that don’t are usually identified fairly quickly and are encouraged to find another line of work. Some hold on, and use the system’s faults to hold on to their job, but they end up pigeon-holed into positions where they can do the least amount of damage. What happens when a dedicated federal worker receives direction that they know to be improper or injurious to the work they believe needs to be done? As many federal workers have experienced during the early days of the Trump regime, refusing to follow an illegal or improper directive from on high can result in some form of termination. Some workers are in a position where they are able to stand on principle and bear the consequences. Others adopt a passive-aggressive approach. They simply resort (legally) to applying the existing rules and procedures. Government processes are designed to not go too fast. That is intentional. The processes are designed to allow for deliberation and multi-level approval to ensure that government funds aren’t spent on whimsey. I had a purchasing role in the government. I contracted for hundreds of millions of dollars worth of supplies, equipment, and analytic support. However, purchasing anything more than a few hundred dollars worth of office supplies required going through a lengthy process of approvals that ensured the appropriateness of the purchase. That purchase had to fall within strict guidelines regarding what was purchased and whom it was purchased from. The purchase was also evaluated to ensure that it reasonably fell within the mission of the organization that I was purchasing it for. That is why purchasing an item on an existing contract would take several months, and purchasing something on a new contract would take over a year. The process is full of checks and balances. Does this slow down things? Yes! But it also tempers sudden swings in the direction of the government. A new employee takes about 18 months to get fully up-to-speed on their job. A new organization will take 3 – 5 years to become fully effective, if things go well. If the government completely reforms and changes direction every 4 or 8 years, then nothing would ever get done. The government requires consistency to be effective, and it is constructed to maintain that consistency. So, the “Deep State” consists of the people, rules, and systems which work to ensure that the tomorrow they can accomplish as much good as they did today. If the Trump regime succeeds in rooting out the “Deep State” they will need to have removed not just the people, but the rules and directives which direct the governments daily activities. This will result in chaos, and those parts of the government affected will cease to effectively function.
China and Russia have no interest in attacking the US directly. Right now, we are a divided country. We are close to the point at which our internal conflict may render us impotent at the international level. China could attack Taiwan and it is doubtful that the US would attempt a meaningful defense. Russia could drop a Nuke on Ukraine and it is unlikely that the US would respond with direct military intervention. Our political divisions are so severe that it would be difficult to gather a majority in the House and the Senate to authorize a response, and Trump would not be inclined to try to create that consensus. On the big issues of the day, we are effectively neutralized. So, why would a foreign power want to change that? The one thing that would have a chance of uniting this country in a meaningful way would be a direct attack on the US. The September 11 attacks caused a terrible loss of life, but the physical damage to the US was almost trivial. Ukraine suffers that much damage almost every week. Still, the US rallied and responded with great force. How much more would the people of the US pull together and respond most ferociously to a physical attack on the homeland by Russia or China? Most people are oblivious to the daily attacks by both Russia and China (and others) in cyberspace, because they don’t see it directly affecting them (the operative clause being “they don’t see it”). A major physical attack could not be ignored, and would change the direction of this country. Our enemies are quite happy for us to continue in our current direction.
What is the MAGA administration’s end game? Trump admires the “emperor-for-life” status enjoyed by Xi and Putin. That would be his ideal end-game. I don’t believe he can achieve it, and I don’t think he does either. Changing the constitution to allow him additional terms is just not achievable. Trump’s number one goal was to not have to pay the penalty for his previous crimes. By returning as President, he has achieved that. Sure, there are a few financial penalties, but those are minor and mostly being paid by others. Meanwhile, Trump will more than offset those losses through contributions from MAGA world and selling worthless swag. Trump’s number two goal is to ensure that when he leaves office he won’t be prosecuted for any new crimes. The Supreme Court has already handed him much of that. However, his current efforts are aimed at dismantling those offices and processes which attempted to hold him accountable in the past while intimidating any that might seek to do so in the future. His third goal is to enrich himself as much as possible. He doesn’t need more money, but it feeds his ego. Last, he seeks the esteem of others to feed his ego. MAGA world is very effective at this. He will fight any efforts to separate him from his acolytes. Thus, he will forcefully respond to anything that would expose his followers to information not in accord with his sculpted narrative. This will likely result in work to control the media and attacks on non-compliant media and personalities. Freedom of speech will only be tolerated if it is his speech. Fact checking may become traitorous. If this is successful, it will play into goals 2 – 4 by ensuring a compliant successor.
01/12/2026 – Update.
My last update to this was in August of 2025. I don’t see anything requiring an apology. Things are worse than I feared. The Supreme Court’s republican majority has completely rolled over for Trump. Remember when we used to think of the Supreme Court as an unbiased 3rd branch of the government? Now, neither of those are true, if they ever were. The court’s willingness to throw away decades of precedence is astounding.
Whether intentional or not, Trump’s invasion of Venezuela gives the green light to China to move on Taiwan. Trump would have no moral authority to complain or intervene, nor would he be likely to do more than bluster. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has now been legitimized. Trump’s only interest is to end the war in Ukraine so that he can lift financial sanctions on Russia. The terms of the war’s end are of no concern. He sees potential for investment in Russia, and has probably already set his own investments in place to benefit when sanctions are removed.